A STATISTICAL REGRESSION APPROACH ON THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Abstrak

This study examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021 using the ARDL model. The results reveal that population growth has a positive impact on economic growth, but this effect is statistically insignificant. This suggests that while a larger population can potentially contribute to economic expansion by providing a larger labor force and market, it does not significantly drive economic growth. Moreover, the research shows that the labor force participation rate also positively influences economic growth but lacks statistical significance. This implies that an active workforce is beneficial but not a dominant factor in driving economic growth. Conversely, the study finds a significant and negative correlation between the unemployment rate and economic growth, highlighting the detrimental impact of high unemployment on the economy. Based on these findings, policymakers are advised to prioritize labor market policies that target unemployment reduction and promote job creation. Additionally, monitoring and managing population growth trends through family planning programs are essential for sustainable economic development. Diversifying the economy beyond natural resources, investing in education and vocational training, and focusing on infrastructure development are further recommended strategies to foster economic growth in Nigeria. In summary, while population growth plays a role, addressing unemployment and labor market dynamics is crucial for long-term economic sustainability.

Kata Kunci